Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level
AbstractWe examine the use of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Using theories of resource mobilization as a conceptual foundation, the paper relies on: 1) case studies of three communities vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions; and 2) analysis of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. We find that understanding the regulatory machinery and other institutions involved in using climate forecasts is critical to more effective use of these forecasts. Forecast use could be promoted by: 1) an extension service to broker climate information; 2) the identification or creation of federal authorities to fund activities to mitigate ENSO impacts; and 3) the proactive use of ENSO signals to identify areas most likely to be influenced by climate anomalies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-02-27.
Date of creation: 01 May 2002
Date of revision:
flooding; ENSO; La Niña; climate variability; climate forecast; natural hazards; water policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2006-01-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2006-01-24 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-01-24 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2001. "When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning," Discussion Papers dp-01-56-, Resources For the Future.
- Peter J. May & Raymond J. Burby, 1996. "Coercive versus cooperative policies: Comparing intergovernmental mandate performance," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 171-201.
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