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A Historical Perspective on International Co-movements: 1821-2007

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  • Saverio Simonelli

    (Università di Napoli Federico II)

  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Bank of England)

  • Paolo Surico

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Using a dynamic factor model, we uncover four main empirical regularities on international comovements in a long-run panel of real and nominal variables. First, the contribution of world comovements to domestic output growth has decreased over the post-WWII period. The contribution of regional comovements, however, has increased significantly. Second, the share of inflation variation due to a global factor has become larger since 1985. Third, over most of the post-WWII period, international comovements within regions have accounted for the bulk of fluctuations in business cycle and inflation. Fourth, prices have become significantly less countercyclical during the post-1984 sample, with the largest contribution due to external developments.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 523.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:523

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  1. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
  4. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  5. Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 1995. "Stylized facts and regime changes: Are prices procyclical?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 497-526, December.
  6. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
  7. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  11. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1996. "Endogenous money supply and the business cycle," Working Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World And Country-Specific Factors," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 716-734, 08.
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