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Effects on school enrollment and performance of a conditional transfers program in Mexico

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  • Dubois, P.
  • De Janvry, A.
  • Sadoulet, E.

Abstract

We study the effects of a conditional transfers program on school enrollment and performance in Mexico. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the dynamic educational decision and process including the endogeneity and uncertainty of performance (passing grades) and the effect of a conditional cash transfer program for children enrolled at school. Careful identification of the program impact on this model is studied. This framework is used to study the Mexican social program Progresa in which a randomized experiment has been implemented and allows us to identify the effect of the conditional cash transfer program on enrollment and performance at school. Using the rules of the conditional program, we can explain the different incentive effects provided. We also derive the formal identifying assumptions needed to provide consistent estimates of the average treatment effects on enrollment and performance at school. We estimate empirically these effects and find that Progresa had always a positive impact on school continuation whereas for performance it had a positive impact at primary school but a negative one at secondary school, a possible consequence of disincentives due to the program termination after the third year of secondary school. ...French Abstract : Les auteurs étudient les effets d'un programme de transferts conditionnels sur l'inscription et la performance a l'école au Mexique. Ils élaborent un modèle théorique permettant d'analyser les décisions dynamiques d'éducation tenant compte de l'endogénéité et de l'incertitude sur la performance (redoublement) et l'effet d'un programme conditionnel de transferts pour les enfants inscrits à l'école. L'identification de l'impact du programme sur ce modèle est étudiée. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier le programme social mexicain Progresa dans lequel une expérience randomisée a été implémentée et permet d'identifier les effets du programme conditionnel de transferts sur l'inscription et la performance à l'école. En utilisant les règles du programme conditionnel, les auteurs peuvent expliquer les différents effets incitatifs. Ils dérivent aussi les conditions d'identification formelles nécessaires pour obtenir des estimations sans biais de l'effet de traitement moyen sur l'inscription et la performance à l'école. Ils estiment empiriquement ces effets et trouvent que Progresa a toujours un impact positif sur la probabilité de continuer l'école alors que pour la performance il a un impact positif à l'école primaire mais négatif au secondaire, ce qui peut être une conséquence des effets désincitatifs dus à l'arrêt du programme après la troisième année du secondaire.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by French Institute for Agronomy Research (INRA), Economics Laboratory in Toulouse (ESR Toulouse) in its series Economics Working Paper Archive (Toulouse) with number 36.

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Length: 49 p.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rea:inrawp:36

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Keywords: EDUCATION DEMAND; SCHOOLING DECISIONS; SCHOOL PERFORMANCE; DYNAMIC DECISIONS; TREATMENT EFFECTS; TRANSFER PROGRAM; RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT ; MODELE ECONOMETRIQUE; PROGRAMME D'ENSEIGNEMENT; INTEGRATION SOCIALE; PERFORMANCE; RENOVATION PEDAGOGIQUE ; MEXIQUE;

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Cited by:
  1. Daniela Del Boca & Christopher Flinn & Matthew Wiswall, 2014. "Transfers to Households with Children and Child Development," CHILD Working Papers Series 25, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
  2. Marco Manacorda, 2012. "The Cost of Grade Retention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 596-606, May.
  3. Glewwe, Paul & Kassouf, Ana Lucia, 2012. "The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 505-517.
  4. Angelucci, Manuela, 2004. "Aid and Migration: An Analysis of the Impact of Progresa on the Timing and Size of Labour Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 1187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Del Rey, Elena & Estevan, Fernanda, 2013. "Conditional cash transfers and education quality in the presence of credit constraints," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-84.
  6. Gitter, Seth R. & Barham, Bradford L., 2007. "Credit, Natural Disasters, Coffee, and Educational Attainment in Rural Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 498-511, March.

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