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Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur

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  • Carrière-Swallow, Yan

    () (Banco Central de Chile)

  • Medel, Carlos

    () (Banco Central de Chile)

Abstract

Literatura reciente ha establecido que aumentos repentinos en el nivel de incertidumbre global generan caídas de la actividad alrededor del mundo. Trabajos teóricos predicen que no todos los sectores de las economías deberían verse afectados de la misma manera. En este trabajo se estima el impacto de shocks de incertidumbre globales (i.e. un fuerte incremento en la volatilidad del mercado accionario estadounidense) sobre sectores de la economía chilena y peruana. Mediante vectores autorregresivos se encuentra que la caída del PIB alcanza 1,7 y 1,0% respecto al crecimiento de su tendencia, para Chile y Perú respectivamente, ambas cercanas a los 3 trimestres siguientes de ocurrido el shock. A nivel sectorial, en Chile la caída más pronunciada se observa en el sector construcción (cerca de -4,0 %), mientras que por el lado de la demanda es el consumo durable (alrededor de -7,0 %) y maquinarias y equipos (-10,0 %). Para el caso peruano, se destacan la caída de la inversión (-4,5 %) por el lado de la demanda, y del sector manufacturero (-4,0 %) por el lado de la oferta.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2011-016.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2011-016

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References

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  1. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," CEP Discussion Papers dp1195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
  3. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415, 04.
  4. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Carlos Medel, 2011. "Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 647, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Luis Felipe Céspedes, 2011. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 646, Central Bank of Chile.
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Cited by:
  1. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Medel, Carlos, 2011. "Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur," Working Papers 2011-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Luis Ceballos S. & Mario González F., 2012. "Indicador de Condiciones Económicas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(1), pages 105-117, April.
  3. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Luis Felipe Céspedes, 2011. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 646, Central Bank of Chile.

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