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The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Labour Market Flexibility?

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Abstract

GDP per worker fell for the five years after 2008 which is unprecedented in post war UK history. In this paper we argue that "capital shallowing" (i.e. the fall in the capital-labour ratio) could be the main reason for this. This is likely to have occurred due to changes in factor prices: a large fall in real wages and increases in the cost of capital. In previous recessions real wages did not fall, but reforms to union strength and welfare have made wages more sensitive to negative demand shocks. This wage flexibility is desirable as it reduces the risks of long-term unemployment building up. After accounting for changes in capital TFP is more similar to earlier recessions and likely to be related to under-utilised resources and misallocation. The fall in labour productivity is therefore likely to reverse if demand improves - e.g. through stronger monetary or fiscal policy stimulus.

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  • Joao Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2013. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Labour Market Flexibility?," CEP Reports 31, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepsps:31
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    1. Bagaria, Nitika & Petrongolo, Barbara & Van Reenen, John, 2015. "Can helping the sick hurt the able? Incentives, information and disruption in a disability-related welfare reform," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62566, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2016. "Violence in Mexico and its effects on labor productivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 317-339, March.
    3. Felix Koenig & Barbara Petrongolo & John Van Reenen & Nitika Bagaria, 2019. "Can Helping the Sick Hurt the Able? Incentives, Information and Disruption in a Welfare Reform," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(624), pages 3189-3218.
    4. Rebecca Riley & Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Garry Young, 2013. "Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British businesses," Discussion Papers 1407, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2014.
    5. Harald Hau & Yi Huang & Gewei Wang, 2020. "Firm Response to Competitive Shocks: Evidence from China’s Minimum Wage Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(6), pages 2639-2671.
    6. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Lecat, R. & O’Donnell, C. & Bureau, B. & Villetelle, J.-P., 2016. "Les crédits aux entreprises à taux particulièrement bas en France," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 203, pages 5-18.
    7. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Eric Bengtsson & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2018. "Wages, income distribution and economic growth in Scandinavia," Working Papers PKWP1811, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. S. Avouyi-Dovi. & R. Lecat. & C. O’Donnell. & B. Bureau. & J.-P. Villetelle., 2016. "Corporate loans at particularly low rates in France," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 41, pages 27-39, spring.
    10. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2018. "Accounting for the UK Productivity Puzzle: A Decomposition and Predictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 581-605, July.
    11. Bagaria, Nitika & Petrongolo, Barbara & Van Reenen, John, 2015. "Can Helping the Sick Hurt the Able? Incentives, Information and Disruption in a Disability-Related Welfare Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 9089, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Riley, Rebecca & Rosazza-Bondibene, Chiara & Young, Garry, 2015. "The UK productivity puzzle 2008-13: evidence from British businesses," Bank of England working papers 531, Bank of England.
    13. Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2023. "The decoupling between labour compensation and productivity in high‐income countries: Why is the nexus broken?," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 425-463, June.
    14. Kalim SIDDIQUI, 2020. "A Perspective on Productivity Growth and Challenges for the UK Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 21-42, January.
    15. Ana Rincon-Aznar & Rebecca Riley & Garry Young, 2017. "Academic Review of Asset Lives in the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 474, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Rebecca Riley & Chiara Rosazza-Bondibene, 2015. "The UK Productivity Puzzle 2008-2013: Evidence From British Businesses," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 450, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; employment; wages; labour market flexibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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