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Did Labour Market Concentration Lower Wages Growth Pre-COVID?

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  • Jonathan Hambur

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Wages growth in Australia was lower than expected prior to COVID-19 based on historical determinants. One possible explanation for this is that employment had become more concentrated among a small number of large employers. This reduced outside options for workers and lowered their bargaining power and wages. This paper examines concentration in Australian labour markets and its impacts on wages using a large and representative database derived from administrative tax data. Labour markets have not, on average, become more concentrated over time. However, the impact of any given level of concentration has increased since the 2010s. This may help explain surprisingly low wages growth pre-COVID, despite labour market concentration having remained constant. Simple back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the greater impact of concentration may have lowered wages by a little under 1 per cent on average between 2011 and 2015. Declining firm entry and dynamism appear to have contributed to the increased impact of concentration, and lower wages growth, by lowering competition for labour among incumbent firms. Declining union coverage and occupational mobility may also have played a role, but declining firm entry appears to have been the main driver.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Hambur, 2023. "Did Labour Market Concentration Lower Wages Growth Pre-COVID?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2023-02
    DOI: 10.47688/rdp2023-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2017. "The Relative Power of Employment-to-Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Exits in Predicting Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 364-368, May.
    2. Marinescu, Ioana & Ouss, Ivan & Pape, Louis-Daniel, 2021. "Wages, hires, and labor market concentration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 506-605.
    3. Dan Andrews & David Hansell, 2021. "Productivity‐Enhancing Labour Reallocation in Australia†," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(317), pages 157-169, June.
    4. James Bishop & Iris Chan, 2019. "Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Alan Manning, 2021. "Monopsony in Labor Markets: A Review," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 3-26, January.
    6. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman & Hyunseob Kim, 2022. "Strong Employers and Weak Employees: How Does Employer Concentration Affect Wages?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 200-250.
    7. Elizabeth Weber Handwerker & Matthew Dey, 2022. "Some Facts about Concentrated Labor Markets in the United States," Economic Working Papers 550, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    8. Ben Lipsius, 2018. "Labor Market Concentration does not Explain the Falling Labor Share," 2018 Papers pli1202, Job Market Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim Nguyen & Jonathan Hambur, 2023. "Adoption of Emerging Digital General-purpose Technologies: Determinants and Effects," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Andrew Leigh, 2023. "How uncompetitive markets hurt workers," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 26(1), pages 1-21.
    3. Omer Majeed & Jonathan Hambur & Robert Breunig, 2024. "Do Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions Impact Innovation? Evidence from Australian Administrative Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Gulnara Nolan & Jonathan Hambur & Philip Vermeulen, 2023. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Non-mining Business Investment in Australia? Evidence from BLADE," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wages; market power; labour markets; concentration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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