The economic consequences of population and urbanization growth in Italy: from the 13th century to 1900. A discussion on the Malthusian dynamics
AbstractIn this paper we investigate the quantitative relation between population, real wages and urbanization in the Italian economy during the period 1320-1870. In this period the prevailing conditions were those of a poor, mainly agricultural economy with limited human capital and rudimentary technology. However, these centuries witnessed the considerable growth of urban centers, which was not only a significant demographic phenomenon in itself. The multiplication of such agglomerations had a striking influence on mortality and hence on the general course of the economy in this period. We present two main results i) the positive check is strong and statistically significant and it explains an important part of the dynamic of mortality but the other equilibrating mechanism in the Malthusian model -the preventive check- based on the positive relationship between fertility and real wages does not operate; ii) the urbanization process and the flows of rural immigrants which fuelled it, had profound, complex implications on productivity in agriculture and on wages and population dynamics.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 2_2010.
Date of creation: 30 Jan 2010
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Malthusian dynamics; Urbanization; Pre-industrial labor productivity; Poulation trend; Demographic changes.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
- N53 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: Pre-1913
- N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2010-03-13 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-URE-2010-03-13 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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