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Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy 1650-1881

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Author Info

  • Alan Fernihough

    (University College Dublin)

Abstract

Recent empirical research has questioned the validity of using Malthusian theory in pre-industrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650-1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region { Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a `Malthusian' economy where population growth depressed living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. In addition, I find no evidence of Boseru- pian effects as increases in population failed to spur sustained technological growth.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp10_37.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201037.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 15 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201037

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Keywords: Economic History; Demographic Economics;

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References

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  1. Oded Galor, 2006. "The Demographic Transition," Working Papers 2006-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Giovanni Federico & Paolo Malanima, 2004. "Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000-2000," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(3), pages 437-464, 08.
  3. Morgan Kelly & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2010. "Living Standards and Mortality since the Middle Ages," Working Papers 201026, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  4. Niels Framroze Møller & Paul Sharp, 2008. "Malthus in Cointegration Space: A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England," Discussion Papers 08-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March.
  6. Alexander Rathke & Samad Sarferaz, 2010. "Malthus was right: new evidence from a time-varying VAR," IEW - Working Papers 477, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Two New Papers On Malthus
    by Mark McG in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2010-12-05 18:39:00
  2. Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881
    by Mark McG in Economics and Psychology Research on 2012-10-02 01:21:00
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Cited by:
  1. Ulrich Pfister & Jana Riedel & Martin Uebele, 2012. "Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries," Working Papers 0017, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  2. Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2010. "The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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