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Modelling reliability benefits

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  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of several models forecasting travel time variability for road traffic, using before/after data from the introduction of the Stockholm congestion charges. Models are estimated on before-data, and the models’ forecasts for the after-situation are compared to actual after measurements. The accuracy of the models vary substantially, but several models are able to forecast the benefits from reduced travel time variability with sufficient accuracy to make them useful for decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Jonas, 2019. "Modelling reliability benefits," MPRA Paper 94817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94817
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eliasson, Jonas, 2009. "A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 468-480, May.
    2. Eliasson, Jonas, 2008. "Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charging trial," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 395-404, November.
    3. Stefanie Peer & Carl Koopmans & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-071/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    5. Marco Kouwenhoven & Pim Warffemius, 2016. "Forecasting Travel Time Reliability in Road Transport: A new Model for The Netherlands," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2016/02, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Travel time variability; reliability; cost benefit analysis; congestion pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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