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Methods for Scenario-building: it’s importance for policy analysis

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  • Moniz, António

Abstract

A scenario is a policy analysis tool that describes a possible set of future conditions. The most useful scenarios (for corporations, for policy decision makers) are those that display the conditions of important variables over time. In this approach, the quantitative underpinning enriches the narrative evolution of conditions or evolution of the variables; narratives describe the important events and developments that shape the variables. In terms of innovative methods for policy analysis, the foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences. Some examples of these exercises will be present in this paper, either related to vision in science and technology developments, social and technological futures, or related to aggregated indicators on human development. Two cases (Japan and Germany) are held on behalf the ministries of science and education (respectively, MEXT and BMBF), and another with the support of United Nations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7893.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision: Sep 2005
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7893

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Related research

Keywords: scenarios; policy analysis; foresight; forecasting methods; technological futures;

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References

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  1. Moniz, António, 2004. "Discussão de temas de cenarização para a indústria automóvel para aplicação do método Delphi em Portugal
    [Discussion of scenario topics for the automotive industry to apply a Delphi method
    ," MPRA Paper 5933, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
  2. Moniz, António, 2004. "Resultados provisórios do exercício Delphi WorTiS (1ª fase)
    [Provisional results of the 1st round of Delphi WorTiS exercise]
    ," MPRA Paper 5936, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
  3. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702766.
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  1. Socio-Economics of Innovation

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