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Long-Term Monarchical Survival in the Middle East: A Configurational Comparison, 1945-2012

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  • Bank, André
  • Richter, Thomas
  • Sunik, Anna

Abstract

The survival of eight monarchies during the Arab Uprisings of 2011 has put center stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we compare the 13 current and former Middle Eastern monarchies, as well as their different trajectories. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research on Middle Eastern monarchies - namely, US military support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule and anti-government protest. Our findings support the existence of two broad pathways to monarchical survival - linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies - and also reveal a possible third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman, the historical Imamate in North Yemen, and Saudi Arabia).

Suggested Citation

  • Bank, André & Richter, Thomas & Sunik, Anna, 2013. "Long-Term Monarchical Survival in the Middle East: A Configurational Comparison, 1945-2012," GIGA Working Papers 215, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gigawp:215
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702773, September.
    2. Matthias Basedau & Jann Lay, 2009. "Resource Curse or Rentier Peace? The Ambiguous Effects of Oil Wealth and Oil Dependence on Violent Conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(6), pages 757-776, November.
    3. Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne, 2011. "Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(2), pages 249-259, March.
    4. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226702766 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Fenja Søndergaard Møller, 2019. "Blue blood or true blood: Why are levels of intrastate armed conflict so low in Middle Eastern monarchies?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(5), pages 517-544, September.
    2. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Indra de Soysa, 2019. "Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013," Working Papers 201908 Key words: Oil wea, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    3. Larissa Nawo & Désiré Avom & Kyle McNabb & Luc Nembot, 2019. "Unofficial sovereign wealth funds and duration in power in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Schlumberger, Oliver, 2021. "Puzzles of political change in the Middle East: Political liberalisation, authoritarian resilience and the question of systemic change," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Josua, Maria, 2016. "If You Can't Include Them, Exclude Them: Countering the Arab Uprisings in Algeria and Jordan," GIGA Working Papers 286, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    6. Melissa Carlson & Barbara Koremenos, 2021. "Cooperation Failure or Secret Collusion? Absolute Monarchs and Informal Cooperation," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 95-135, January.

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