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Pre-Recession Wage Inflation and the Strength of the Subsequent Recovery

Author

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  • Campbell, Carl

Abstract

This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. On the other hand, the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage growth has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, Carl, 2016. "Pre-Recession Wage Inflation and the Strength of the Subsequent Recovery," MPRA Paper 73226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73226
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lebow David E & Saks Raven E & Wilson Beth Anne, 2003. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, October.
    2. Kahn, Shulamit, 1997. "Evidence of Nominal Wage Stickiness from Microdata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 993-1008, December.
    3. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    5. Fehr, Ernst & Goette, Lorenz, 2005. "Robustness and real consequences of nominal wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 779-804, May.
    6. Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "The Impact of Employee Stock Options on the Evolution of Compensation in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, September.
    8. Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 17-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage inflation; Recovery strength; Wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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