A Predictive Model Evaluation and Selection Approach - The Correlated Gamma Ratio Distribution

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A Predictive Model Evaluation and Selection Approach - The Correlated Gamma Ratio Distribution

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Xekalaki, Evdokia
Panaretos, John
Psarakis, Stelios

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Abstract

In this paper, an evaluation method is suggested for selecting one of two competing models based on certain predictive ability ratings. The main focus is on the case of linear models that are not necessarily nested. In the context of such models, the test procedure is based on a sample statistic whose distribution is shown to arise as the distribution of the ratio of two correlated gamma variables termed as the Correlated Gamma Ration Distribution. Percentage points of this distribution are obtained. The procedure is illustrated on real data.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6389.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6389

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
Panaretos, John & Psarakis, Stelios & Xekalaki, Evdokia & Karlis, Dimitris, 2005. "The Correlated Gamma-Ratio Distribution in Model Evaluation and Selection," MPRA Paper 6355, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2007. "Assessing the performance of a prediction error criterion model selection algorithm in the context of ARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 149-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Xekalaki, Evdokia & Panaretos, John, 2004. "A Binomial Distribution With Dependent Trials And Its Use in Stochastic Model Evaluation," MPRA Paper 6393, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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