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Option trading for optimizing volatility forecasting

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  • Vasilios Sogiakas

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of several volatility specifications that aim to quantify market risk. Using an options’ trading strategy on volatility the comparison is implemented in a dynamic approach, applying the standardized prediction error criterion. The empirical findings of the paper suggest that the SPEC criterion outperforms all volatility models that assume normality on the data and exhibits similar forecasting ability with most of the models that assume skewed distributions of asset returns.JEL classification numbers: G11, G13, G17Keywords: SPEC; option trading; straddle; market risk; volatility forecasting; Black-Scholes.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilios Sogiakas, 2017. "Option trading for optimizing volatility forecasting," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(3), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:6:y:2017:i:3:f:6_3_3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Panaretos, John & Psarakis, Stelios, 2003. "A Predictive Model Evaluation and Selection Approach - The Correlated Gamma Ratio Distribution," MPRA Paper 6389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2005. "Evaluating volatility forecasts in option pricing in the context of a simulated options market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 611-629, April.
    3. Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Asymptotically Optimal Smoothing with ARCH Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spec; option trading; straddle; market risk; volatility forecasting; â black-scholes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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