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El Nuevo Consenso Macroeconómico y la mediocridad del crecimiento económico en México
[New Consensus Macroeconomics and the mediocrity of economic growth in Mexico]

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  • Carrasco, Carlos A.

Abstract

In this paper we study the theoretical model and its application as economic policy of the New Consensus Macroeconomics in Mexico. We focus in fiscal and monetary policy in the last 30 years. We critically revise empirical economic literature on the effects of the process of adjustment and reforms in Mexican economy after the burst of the debt crisis. Finally, we analyse the explanatory hypothesis about the low growth of Mexican economy related to the weakness of property right protection. Our main conclusion states that, given the preferences of price stability imposed by the central bank and the disdain of fiscal policy in areas such as public investment, agents do not invest due to the deterioration of expectations of future growth of the Mexican economy and low expected returns to investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 53391.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53391

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Related research

Keywords: Mexico; macroeconomic policy; New Consensus Macroeconomics; economic growth;

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  1. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 267-79, January.
  3. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, 05.
  4. Crowe, Christopher, 2010. "Testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting: Evidence from private sector forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-232, March.
  5. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
  6. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2006. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2121, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Gordon H. Hanson, 2010. "Why Isn't Mexico Rich?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 987-1004, December.
  9. Luke Byrne Willard, 2012. "Does inflation targeting matter? A reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(17), pages 2231-2244, June.
  10. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
  11. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2009. "The consensus view on interest rates and fiscal policy: reality or innocent fraud?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 567-586, July.
  12. Noriega, Antonio & Fontenla, Matías, 2007. "La infraestructura y el crecimiento económico en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(296), pages 885-900, octubre-d.
  13. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2013. "Inflation targeting and inflation expectations in Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3295-3304, August.
  14. Carlos Ibarra, 2010. "Exporting without growing: Investment, real currency appreciation, and export-led growth in Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 439-464.
  15. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  16. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, 08.
  17. Malcolm Sawyer, 2009. "Fiscal and interest rate policies in the "new consensus" framework: a different perspective," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 549-565, July.
  18. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2013. "Inflation targeting in Mexico," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 341-372, April.
  19. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Latin America," Working Papers 2006-11, Banco de México.
  20. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesús Ferreiro, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 675-692, December.
  21. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2010. "Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 409-428, April.
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