IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/52931.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?
[Will Postponing Retirement Crowd out Youth Employment?]

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Chuanchuan
  • Zhao, Yaohui

Abstract

In the situation of rapid population aging, postponing retirement is a timely and effective measure in relieving pressure of old age support. However, many people think that postponing retirement will crowd out youth employment. Using data in China, this paper shows that this judgment cannot be supported by empirical evidence. Using data from 1990 census, 2000 census and 2005 1% population sample survey, this paper examines the impact of employment of older persons on employment of younger persons. Our OLS estimation results suggest that employment of younger persons is positively instead of negatively correlated with employment of older persons. We further dealt with the potential endogeneity of the OLS estimation by employing two-way fix-effects and TSLS estimation strategies. The results still suggest that increase of employment of older persons will promote rather than depress employment of younger persons. We also found a positive effect of employment of older persons on young workers’ wage. This study suggests that postponing retirement wouldn’t crowd out employment of younger persons.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chuanchuan & Zhao, Yaohui, 2012. "延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗? [Will Postponing Retirement Crowd out Youth Employment?]," MPRA Paper 52931, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52931/1/MPRA_paper_52931.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    2. Jonathan Gruber & Kevin Milligan & David A. Wise, 2009. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 14647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adriaan Kalwij & Arie Kapteyn & Klaas de Vos, 2009. "Early retirement and employment of the young," Working Papers 200948, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    4. Emma Aguila & Orazio Attanasio & Costas Meghir, 2011. "Changes in Consumption at Retirement: Evidence from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1094-1099, August.
    5. Kapteyn, Arie & Kalwij, Adriaan & Zaidi, Asghar, 2004. "The myth of worksharing," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 293-313, June.
    6. Hongbin Li & Xinzheng Shi & Binzhen Wu, 2015. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 437-441, May.
    7. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    8. Hebbink, G. E., 1993. "Production factor substitution and employment by age group," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 217-224, July.
    9. Tom Walker, 2007. "Why economists dislike a lump of labor," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(3), pages 279-291.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Chuanchuan, 2012. "The relationship between elderly employment and youth employment: evidence from China," MPRA Paper 37221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Allais, Olivier & Leroy, Pascal & Mink, Julia, 2020. "Changes in food purchases at retirement in France," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Adriaan Kalwij & Arie Kapteyn & Klaas Vos, 2010. "Retirement of Older Workers and Employment of the Young," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(4), pages 341-359, November.
    4. Deng, Tinghe & Chen, Qihui & Bai, Junfei, 2016. "Understanding the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle through the Lens of Food Consumption − Fuzzy Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from Urban China," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235535, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Chen, Qihui & Deng, Tinghe & Bai, Junfei & He, Xiurong, 2017. "Understanding the retirement-consumption puzzle through the lens of food consumption-fuzzy regression-discontinuity evidence from urban China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 45-61.
    6. Yingying Dong & Dennis Yang, 2016. "Mandatory Retirement and the Consumption Puzzle: Prices Decline or Quantities Decline?," Upjohn Working Papers 16-251, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    7. Julia Mink, 2021. "The effects of major life events and exposure to adverse environmental conditions on health and health-related outcomes [Les effets d'événements majeurs de la vie et de l'exposition à des condition," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03575191, HAL.
    8. Toshiyuki Uemura & Yoshimi Adachi & Tomoki Kitamura, 2017. "Effects of Individual Resident Tax on the Consumption of Near-Retired Households in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 161, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2017.
    9. Margareta Vania Putri & Catur Sugiyanto, 2023. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle Effect in Indonesia: Evidence from IFLS 4 and 5," Gadjah Mada Economics Working Paper Series 202303004, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada.
    10. Julia Mink, 2021. "The effects of major life events and exposure to adverse environmental conditions on health and health-related outcomes [Les effets d'événements majeurs de la vie et de l'exposition à des condition," SciencePo Working papers tel-03575191, HAL.
    11. Dong, Yingying, 2010. "Jumpy or Kinky? Regression Discontinuity without the Discontinuity," MPRA Paper 25461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    13. Laliotis, Ioannis & Shaikh, Mujaheed & Stavropoulou, Charitini & Kourouklis, Dimitrios, 2019. "Retirement and household expenditure in turbulent times," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102646, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Peter Frase & Janet Gornick, 2009. "The Time Divide in Cross-National Perspective: The Work Week, Gender and Education in 17 Countries," LIS Working papers 526, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    15. Zhu, Penghu & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Do the elderly consume more energy? Evidence from the retirement policy in urban China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    16. Thomas Horvath & Thomas Url, 2013. "Bridging-Renten als Überbrückung für Einkommensausfälle vor dem Pensionsantritt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46684, April.
    17. Parsons, Donald O., 2016. "Moral-Hazard-Free First-Best Unemployment Insurance," IZA Discussion Papers 9824, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Daniel Burkhard, 2015. "Consumption smoothing at retirement: average and quantile treatment effects in the regression discontinuity design," Diskussionsschriften dp1512, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    19. Celidoni, Martina & Weber, Guglielmo, 2020. "Do you need less money in retirement?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Velarde, Melanie & Herrmann, Roland, 2014. "How retirement changes consumption and household production of food: Lessons from German time-use data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 1-10.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retirement age; Employment of older persons; Youth employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.