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Skew mixture models for loss distributions: a Bayesian approach

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  • Bernardi, Mauro
  • Maruotti, Antonello
  • Lea, Petrella

Abstract

The derivation of loss distribution from insurance data is a very interesting research topic but at the same time not an easy task. To find an analytic solution to the loss distribution may be mislading although this approach is frequently adopted in the actuarial literature. Moreover, it is well recognized that the loss distribution is strongly skewed with heavy tails and present small, medium and large size claims which hardly can be fitted by a single analytic and parametric distribution. Here we propose a finite mixture of Skew Normal distributions that provides a better characterization of insurance data. We adopt a Bayesian approach to estimate the model, providing the likelihood and the priors for the all unknow parameters; we implement an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution. We apply our approach to a well known Danish fire loss data and relevant risk measures, as Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall probability, are evaluated as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39826.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39826

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Keywords: Markov chain Monte Carlo; Bayesian analysis; mixture model; Skew-Normal distributions; Loss distribution; Danish data;

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References

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  1. Marin, Jean-Michel & Mengersen, Kerrie & Robert, Christian P., 2005. "Bayesian Modelling and Inference on Mixtures of Distributions," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6069, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Ahn, Soohan & Kim, Joseph H.T. & Ramaswami, Vaidyanathan, 2012. "A new class of models for heavy tailed distributions in finance and insurance risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 43-52.
  3. Bolance, Catalina & Guillen, Montserrat & Pelican, Elena & Vernic, Raluca, 2008. "Skewed bivariate models and nonparametric estimation for the CTE risk measure," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 386-393, December.
  4. Eling, Martin, 2012. "Fitting insurance claims to skewed distributions: Are the skew-normal and skew-student good models?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 239-248.
  5. Bernardi, Mauro, 2013. "Risk measures for skew normal mixtures," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(8), pages 1819-1824.
  6. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika van der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639.
  7. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Loss Distributions," MPRA Paper 22163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Francesco Lagona & Marco Picone, 2012. "Model-based clustering of multivariate skew data with circular components and missing values," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 927-945, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Mauro Bernardi & Ghislaine Gayraud & Lea Petrella, 2013. "Bayesian inference for CoVaR," Papers 1306.2834, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
  2. Loperfido, Nicola, 2014. "A note on the fourth cumulant of a finite mixture distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 386-394.
  3. Bernardi, Mauro, 2013. "Risk measures for skew normal mixtures," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(8), pages 1819-1824.

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