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The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach

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  • Brian A., Jingwa
  • Simplice A., Asongu

Abstract

The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35898/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35898.

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Date of creation: 12 Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35898

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Keywords: Deforestation; Environment; Human development index; Agriculture; Data modelling; Africa;

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  1. Simplice A, Asongu & Brian A, Jingwa, 2011. "Population growth and forest sustainability in Africa," MPRA Paper 35179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. James Foster & Luis Lopez-Calva & Miguel Szekely, 2005. "Measuring the Distribution of Human Development: methodology and an application to Mexico," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 5-25.
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Cited by:
  1. Asongu Simplice, 2011. "Deforestation and Welfare: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 11/022, African Governance and Development Institute..
  2. A. Misra & Kusum Lata & J. Shukla, 2014. "Effects of population and population pressure on forest resources and their conservation: a modeling study," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 361-374, April.

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