The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach
AbstractThe rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990-2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. This implies a total of 3.42% of forest was lost in the 18 year period. This is more in line with estimates obtained by the Food and Agricultural Organization (0.56% between1990-2000 and 0.49% between 2000-2010). Human development which involves life expectancy, education and income is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while cutting down trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalized linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, we were able to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. In many countries, progress has been made in reforestation, forest protection and conservation. However, if indiscriminate cutting down of trees is not checked, many countries will lose most or all of their forests by 2030.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35898.
Date of creation: 12 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Deforestation; Environment; Human development index; Agriculture; Data modelling; Africa;
Other versions of this item:
- Simplice A. Asongu & Brian A. Jingwa, 2012. "The role of human development on deforestation in Africa: a modelling-based approach," International Journal of Green Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(4), pages 317-330.
- Asongu Simplice & Jingwa Brian, 2012. "The Role of Human Development on Deforestation in Africa: A Modelling-Based Approach," Working Papers 12/036, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
- C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-01-25 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2012-01-25 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2012-01-25 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Asongu Simplice & Jingwa Brian, 2011.
"Population Growth and Forest Sustainability in Africa,"
11/017, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Simplice A. Asongu & Brian A. Jingwa, 2012. "Population growth and forest sustainability in Africa," International Journal of Green Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 145-166.
- Simplice A, Asongu & Brian A, Jingwa, 2011. "Population growth and forest sustainability in Africa," MPRA Paper 35179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James Foster & Luis Lopez-Calva & Miguel Szekely, 2005. "Measuring the Distribution of Human Development: methodology and an application to Mexico," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 5-25.
- Simplice A, Asongu, 2011.
"Deforestation and welfare : evidence from Africa,"
35161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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