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Forecasting the role of public expenditure in economic growth Using DEA-neural network approach

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  • Amiri, Arshia
  • Ventelou, Bruno

Abstract

This paper integrates data envelopment analysis (DEA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast the role of public expenditure in economic growth in OCDE countries. The results show that this approach is a powerful and appropriate method to forecast this role. DEA method allows us to develop a neutral evaluation, unbiased a priori by any type of criteria, of the proportions in which the goal of productive spending is pursued, for any expenditure. Then we apply ANN to forecast economic growth by using input data taken at frontier. At the end of the DEA-ANN chain, prediction-power tests appear positive: best structures of multiple hidden layers indicate more ability to forecast according to best structures of single hidden layer but the difference between those is not much.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33955.

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Date of creation: 13 Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33955

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Keywords: DEA method; Economic growth; Public expenditure; Artificial neural network; OCDE countries;

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  1. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
  2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  3. Hamilton, Clive & Turton, Hal, 2002. "Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 63-71, January.
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  5. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Afriat, Sidney N, 1972. "Efficiency Estimation of Production Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 568-98, October.
  7. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W., 1984. "The non-archimedean CCR ratio for efficiency analysis: A rejoinder to Boyd and Fare," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 333-334, March.
  8. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
  9. Ventelou, Bruno & Bry, Xavier, 2006. "The role of public spending in economic growth: Envelopment methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 403-413, May.
  10. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
  11. Lynde, Catherine, 1992. "Private profit and public capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 125-142.
  12. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1979. "Measuring the efficiency of decision-making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 339-338, July.
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