IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/33803.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical testing of Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis with German and UK data

Author

Listed:
  • Josheski, Dushko
  • Koteski, Cane
  • Lazarov, Darko

Abstract

There are a lot of studies that test Ballasa –Samuelson hypothesis also known as Harrod-BalassaSamuelson effect directly via the effect of productivity, one possible explanation is that PER Capita GDP is not good explanation for productivity (.i.e. Labor productivity) differences; an increase (decrease) in relative efficiency of the distribution sector with respect to foreign countries induces depreciation (appreciation) of the exchange rate. After we obtained the number of co-integrated vectors we continue further to see whether the CV tells us something about the long run relationship into the model, likelihood ratio test of exactly identified restrictions test confirms that constant is insignificant variable therefore we can confirm that there is long-run relationship in which the changes in Exchange rate are positively correlated with the changes of ratio of German Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the UK Retail Price Index (RPI). In order to test for relative PPP to support the theoretical relationship between the variables, restrictions are put on the PPP knowing that PPP and that downward movement in the series indicates increase of UK price level relative to German price level. In each EC model there is an EC mechanism and coefficient on the co integrating vector measures the rate per period at which one of the endogenous variables adjusts. In the first equation the error correction mechanism is highly significant and negative. If the system is out of equilibrium, alteration in the change of the exchange rates will be downward (everything else ceteris paribus) compensating around 68% of the disequilibrium per year. In the second equation error correction mechanism is also highly significant but positive meaning that if the system is in disequilibrium changes of change in the ratio of German CPI relative to UK Retail Price index will rise offsetting 15% of the disequilibrium per year until the equilibrium rate of exchange rate will be achieved. Model implies German Labor productivity to UK Labor productivity ratio doesn’t have significant influence on explaining on relative change on prices not even on theexchange rate contrary to Pugh, Beachil study

Suggested Citation

  • Josheski, Dushko & Koteski, Cane & Lazarov, Darko, 2011. "Empirical testing of Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis with German and UK data," MPRA Paper 33803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33803/1/MPRA_paper_33803.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bob Beachill & Geoff Pugh, 1998. "Monetary Cooperation in Europe and the Problem of Differential Productivity Growth: an argument for a 'two-speed' Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 445-457.
    2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    3. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 2001/038, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    2. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    6. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee, 2016. "Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 554-558, May.
    8. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    10. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-185.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    12. Boukraine, Wissem, 2020. "The finance-inequality nexus in the BRICS countries: evidence from an ARDL bound testing approach," MPRA Paper 101976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    14. Saroja Selvanathan & E.A. Selvanathan & Brinda Viswanathan, 2009. "Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism : Empirical Evidence from India," Finance Working Papers 22944, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Wesam Salah Alaloul & Muhammad Ali Musarat & Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani & Qaiser Iqbal & Ahsen Maqsoom & Waqas Farooq, 2021. "Construction Sector Contribution to Economic Stability: Malaysian GDP Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.
    16. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    17. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    18. José A. Núñez & Carlos M. Urzúa, 1996. "The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 11(2), pages 167-180.
    19. Singh, Prakash & Pandey, Manoj K., 2009. "Structural break, stability and demand for money in India," MPRA Paper 15425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hartikainen, Johanna, 1995. "Dynamic effects of demand and supply disturbances on the Finnish economy: Did liberalization of capital movements matter?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 36/1995, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing power parity; Exchange rate; co integration; error correction model; productivity; Consumer Price Index; Retail Price Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.