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Lao People’s Democratic Republic: responding to rice price inflation

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  • Loening, Josef L.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify likely factors driving the 2010 rice price hike and suggest options to manage rice price volatility in the future. Regional trade is likely the main proximate cause for high glutinous rice prices. Trade with Vietnam was likely the main reason for short-term price fluctuations, while trade with Thailand affects medium- and long-term price trends. By contrast, traditional supply and demand factors explain only a small part of rice price inflation. There is, however a possibility that major supply shocks may be regional, which could affect Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam simultaneously. The effectiveness of government policy measures has been mixed. There is a need to closely coordinate rice production and trade policies in order to effectively manage price volatility. Future analysis should look at regional glutinous rice production trends and related trade flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33443.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33443

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Keywords: Food prices; rice prices; sticky rice; regional trade; economic policy; Lao PDR; Thailand; Vietnam;

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  1. Minot, Nicholas & Goletti, Francesco, 2000. "Rice market liberalization and poverty in Viet Nam:," Research reports 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
  4. Bob Baulch & Henrik Hansen & Le Dang Trung & Tran Ngo Minh Tam, 2008. "The Spatial Integration of Paddy Markets in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 271-295, 06.
  5. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
  6. Sanogo, Issa & Maliki Amadou, Mahamane, 2010. "Rice market integration and food security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 312-322, August.
  7. Andersson, Magnus & Engvall, Anders & Kokko, Ari, 2007. "Regional Development In Lao Pdr: Growth Patterns And Market Integration," EIJS Working Paper Series 234, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
  8. Roy van der Weide, 2002. "GO-GARCH: a multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 549-564.
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