IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/3219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macro Economic Uncertainty of 1990s and Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Mamoon, Dawood

Abstract

The paper examines the short to medium term trends and volatility in Karachi Stock Exchange and further explore the nature of relationship between stock market activities and a set of macroeconomic variables in 1990s. The analysis is based on daily and monthly data on general stock price index and trading volume and monthly data on inter bank call rate, wholesale price index, quantum index of manufacturing sector’s output and monetary aggregate M2 and it covers the period January 1992 to June 1999. The paper finds that in 1990s, the stock market at Karachi has become more volatile both on short-term (daily) and medium term (monthly) basis. Furthermore strong volatility inertia was present in stock price index, trading volume, wholesale price index, manufacturing output and money supply. The paper finds that there did not exist any systematic relation of stock price volatility with real or nominal macroeconomic volatility. Likewise, for the sample period, a volatile trading volume was neither due to a volatile stock price nor due to the fluctuations and shocks taking place in the economy. However, there was a negative long run relationship between stock price index and trading volume which suggests that the stock market has grown in size but its performance in terms of price has deteriorated. We also find that the level of real activity as indicated by manufacturing sector’s output responds positively to changes in stock price index. Therefore a poor performance of the stock market was likely to have had played at least some negative effects on the performance of manufacturing sector in the said period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamoon, Dawood, 2007. "Macro Economic Uncertainty of 1990s and Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 3219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3219/1/MPRA_paper_3219.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayaz Ahmed, 1998. "Stock Market Interl inkages in Emerging Markets," PIDE-Working Papers 1998:159, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    4. Fazal HUSAIN & Jamshed UPPAL, 1999. "STOCK RETURNS VOLATILITY IN AN EMERGING MARKET: The Pakistani Evidence," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 15, pages 19-40.
    5. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 1993. "The Internationalisation of the Pakistani Stock Market: An Empirical Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 605-618.
    6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    7. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-453, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amir Rafique, 2011. "Comparing the Leverage Effect of Different Frequencies of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 283-288.
    2. Amir Rafique, 2011. "Comparing the Volatility Clustering Of Different Frequencies of Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of Pakistan," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 332-336.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kia, Amir, 2003. "Rational speculators and equity volatility as a measure of ex ante risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-157, July.
    2. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    5. João Miguel Ejarque, 2009. "Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Durable Consumption and the Great Depression," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(303), pages 574-587, July.
    6. LINTON, Olivier & PERRON, Benoît, 1999. "The Shape of the Risk Premium: Evidence from a Semiparametric Garch Model," Cahiers de recherche 9911, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    7. Makarov, Igor & Papanikolaou, D., 2008. "Sources of systematic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53906, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    9. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    10. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2013. "Nonparametric realized volatility estimation in the international equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 34-45.
    11. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K., 1997. "What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 821-836, December.
    14. Syed Kamran Ali Haider & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Ishtiaq Ahmed, 2017. "Systematic Risk Factors And Stock Return Volatility," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
    15. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "Why was Stock Market Volatility so High During the Great Depression? Evidence from 10 Countries During the Interwar Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 3254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    17. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    18. Razin, Assaf & Hale, Galina & Tong, Hui, 2006. "Institutional Weakness and Stock Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Viral V. Acharya & Peter DeMarzo & Ilan Kremer, 2011. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2955-2979, December.
    20. Mele, Antonio, 2007. "Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 446-478, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time Series Models; Finance; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.