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The decline in Italian productivity: a study in estimation of long-Run trends in Total Factor Productivity with panel cointegration methods

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  • Fachin, Stefano
  • Gavosto, Andrea

Abstract

The aim of this paper is (i) to propose a method for obtaining estimates of long-run total factor productivity (TFP) trends free from the restrictive assumptions needed by traditional growth accounting, requiring only data on inputs and output flows, and able to deliver estimates of long-run TFP trends; (ii) to apply it to the Italian manufacturing industries over the period 1980-2001, so to shed some light on the severe productivity slowdown of the last decade. The approach proposed relies on recent developments in the analysis of non-stationary, cross-correlated panels. The empirical application, consistently with growth accounting, supports the view that the decline in Italian labour productivity has been mostly due to a widespread fall in TFP growth. A simple regression points as main causes to the completion of a factor reallocation process among industries and inadequate R&D investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3112.

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Date of creation: 07 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3112

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Keywords: Labour Productvity; Productivity Slowdown; Italy; Panel Cointegration;

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  1. Stefano Fachin, 2005. "Long-Run Trends in Internal Migrations in Italy: a Study in Panel Cointegration with Dependent Units," Econometrics 0507002, EconWPA.
  2. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, EconWPA.
  3. Harrigan, James, 1999. "Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 267-293, April.
  4. Francesco Daveri & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2005. "Italy’s Decline: Getting the Facts Right," Working Papers 301, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. n/a, 1997. "Trade with China: Do the Figures Add up?," NIESR Discussion Papers 219, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  7. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
  8. Edward J. Balistreri & Christine A. McDaniel & Eina Vivian Wong, 2003. "An Estimation of U.S. Industry-Level Capital-Labor Substitution," Computational Economics 0303001, EconWPA.
  9. Balistreri, Edward J. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Wong, Eina Vivian, 2003. "An estimation of US industry-level capital-labor substitution elasticities: support for Cobb-Douglas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 343-356, December.
  10. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. " A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
  11. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone, 2001. "Multifactor Productivity and Labour Quality in Italy, 1981-2000," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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