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The public-private savings mirror and causality relations among private savings, investment and (twin) deficits: A full modelling approach

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  • Peeters, Marga

Abstract

Relations between national public and private savings, domestic investment, and the current account are analyzed with the Global Econometric Model (National Institute, London). Simulation results obtained with this full modeling approach for the US, Japan, Germany and the UK are compared with estimation results from partial modeling approached adopted in the literature. The results from the two approaches are rather different. The simulation results indicate that private savings largely offset public savings (and vice versa) in the short run. In contrast with findings in partial models, a smaller effect of aggregate savings on investment is found and government deficits tend to increase current account imbalances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29630.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Policy Modeling 5.21(1999): pp. 579-605
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29630

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Keywords: savings; investment; current account; macro-modelling; twin deficits;

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  1. Tobin, James, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 153-156.
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Movements in the Long Run and the Short Run," NBER Working Papers 0947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Westphal, Uwe, 1983. "'Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run' by M. Feldstein," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 157-159.
  4. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
  5. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "Fiscal policies, capital formation, and capitalism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 399-420, April.
  6. Eisner, Robert, 1994. "National Saving and Budget Deficits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 181-86, February.
  7. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  8. Bini-Smaghi, Lorenzo & Del Giovane, Paolo, 1996. "Convergence of inflation and interest rates prior to EMU: An empirical analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 377-395, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Elif Akbostanci & Gül Ipek Tunç, 2001. "Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance," ERC Working Papers 0106, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2001.

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