Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance
AbstractTwin deficit hypothesis mainly states that government budget deficits will cause trade deficits. However, this is not the only theoretically possible relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit. On the other extreme if Ricardian equivalence hypothesis holds it is also possible that two deficits are not related at all. In this study these hypotheses between the budget deficit and trade deficit for Turkey between 1987 - 2001 period are examined by using the cointegration methodology and by estimating an error correction model. This enabled us to search the relationship between the internal and external deficits both in the short-run and in the long-run. Our analysis showed that there is a long-run relationship between the two deficits. Also the short-run model yielded that worsening of the budget balance worsens the trade balance. Therefore we have concluded that the twin deficit hypothesis holds, and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is not valid for Turkey during the study period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University in its series ERC Working Papers with number 0106.
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision: Jun 2001
Twin deficits; trade deficit; budget deficit; Ricardian equivalence; cointegration; error correction models; unit roots; Turkey;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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