Ethiopia: Updated Inflation Forecasts
AbstractThe purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will decrease substantially though inflation inertia may prevent a rapid stabilization of food prices. One of the main driving forces behind domestic inflation is agricultural output growth. While exchange rate and monetary policies can make a significant difference, it is crucial to take into consideration the development of the domestic cereal market. If international prices would start increasing again, they would to have a strong impact on Ethiopia, and the model predictions will not be valid.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25899.
Date of creation: 06 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Inflation; Forecast; Ethiopia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007.
CEPR Discussion Papers
6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009.
"Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia,"
Working Papers in Economics
347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
- Deaton, A., 1999.
"Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica,"
186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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