Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series
AbstractThe instantaneous nature of electricity distinguishes its spot prices from spot prices for equities and other commodities. Up to now electricity cannot be stored economically and therefore demand for electricity has an untempered effect on electricity prices. In particular, hourly electricity spot prices show a vast range of dynamics which can change rapidly. In this paper we introduce a robust version of functional principal component analysis for sparse data. The functional perspective interprets spot prices as functions of demand for electricity and allows to estimate a single price curve for each day. Variations in market fundamentals such as commodity prices are absorbed by the first principal components.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25017.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Functional principal component analysis; non stationary functional time series data; sparse data; electricity spot market prices; European Electricity Exchange (EEX).;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA.
- Huisman, R. & Huurman, C. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007.
"Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3131737, Tilburg University.
- Huisman, R. & Huurman, C. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-002-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & HÃ¤rdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009.
"Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
- Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park, 2007. "Time Series Modelling with Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992.
"Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-53, October.
- Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Jong Cyriel, 2006. "The Nature of Power Spikes: A Regime-Switch Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
- Willems, Bert & Rumiantseva, I. & Weigt, H., 2007.
"Cournot Versus Supply Functions: What does the Data Tell us?,"
2007-63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Willems, Bert & Rumiantseva, Ina & Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "Cournot versus Supply Functions: What does the data tell us?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 38-47, January.
- Bert WILLEMS & Ina RUMIANTSEVA & Hannes WEIGT, 2007. "Cournot versus supply functions: what does the data tell us?," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces0720, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
- Willems, Bert & Rumiantseva, I. & Weigt, H., 2007. "Cournot versus Supply Functions: What Does the Data tell us?," Discussion Paper 2007-023, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Peter Cramton, 2003.
"Competitive Bidding Behavior in Uniform-Price Auction Markets,"
Papers of Peter Cramton
03ferc1, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2003.
- Peter Cramton, 2004. "Competitive Bidding Behavior in Uniform-Price Auction Markets," Papers of Peter Cramton 04hicss, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2004.
- Yao, Fang & Muller, Hans-Georg & Wang, Jane-Ling, 2005. "Functional Data Analysis for Sparse Longitudinal Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 577-590, June.
- Daniel Gervini, 2008. "Robust functional estimation using the median and spherical principal components," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(3), pages 587-600.
- Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2005.
"Can Markov-regime switching models improve power price forecasts? Evidence for German daily power prices,"
Discussion Papers in Statistics and Econometrics
1/05, University of Cologne, Department for Economic and Social Statistics.
- Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2006. "Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
- Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
- Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Trück, 2010. "The dynamics of hourly electricity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-77, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.