The Euro-Project at Risk
AbstractIn contrast to Robert Mundell‘s Optimum Currency Area theory and his recommendation of forming a monetary union, the economic fundamentals of Euro area member countries have not harmonized. The opposite holds: the Euro core countries - most of all Germany, but also the Netherlands and Finland - increased productivity growth while limiting nominal wage growth. However, Mediterranean countries - particularly Greece, but also Spain, Portugal, and Italy - have dramatically lost international competitiveness. Although the overall balance of payments for the Euro area at large is almost balanced, internal disequilibria are skyrocketing and default risk premiums and tensions within the Euro area are rising, thus jeopardizing the stability of the monetary union. The findings confirm that a common currency without fiscal union is inherently unstable. The international financial and economic crisis has merely triggered events which highlight this instability. The paper discusses three possible scenarios for the future of the Euro: a laissez faire approach, a bailout, and finally an exit strategy for the Mediterranean countries, or an organized exit by a group of core countries led by Germany, forming their own smaller monetary union.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23750.
Date of creation: 09 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Optimum currency areas; monetary union; risk spreads; central banking; exchange rates; fiscal policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Hankel, Wilhelm & Hauskrecht, Andreas & Stuart, Bryan, 2010. "The Euro-project at risk," ZEI Working Papers B 04-2010, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Wilhem Hankel & Andreas Hauskrecht & Bryan Stuart, 2010. "The Euro-Project at Risk," Working Papers 2010-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-07-17 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-07-17 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001.
"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income,"
Working Paper Series
rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
- von Hagen, Jurgen, 1991.
"A note on the empirical effectiveness of formal fiscal restraints,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-210, March.
- von Hagen,Juergen, . "A note on the empirical effectiveness of formal fiscal restraints," Discussion Paper Serie B 155, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Michele Fratianni & Andreas Hauskrecht, 1998. "From the Gold Standard to a Bipolar Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 609-636, January.
- Barry Eichengreen and Jurgen von Hagen., 1995.
"Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C95-056, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1995. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "European versus American Perspectives on Balanced-Budget Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 408-13, May.
- Schmitz, Birgit & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Current Account Imbalances and Financial Integration in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michele Fratianni, 2012. "The Future International Monetary System: Dominant Currencies or Supranational Money? An Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju, 02.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.