Severe Loss Probabilities in Portfolio Credit Risk Models
AbstractWe derive explicit sharp bounds on the distribution of the number of defaults from a pool of obligors with common probability of default and default correlation. These bounds are extremely wide, implying that default probabilities and default correlations only very loosely determine probabilities of severe portfolio losses. Our results quantify and thereby reinforce Gordy’s (2002) statement that “Capital decisions ... depend on higher moments”.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22929.
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Date of revision: 14 Jan 2004
Portfolio Credit Risk Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
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- Gordy, Michael B., 2000.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frey, Rudiger & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "VaR and expected shortfall in portfolios of dependent credit risks: Conceptual and practical insights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1317-1334, July.
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