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Long-term diffusion factors of technological development - an evolutionary model and case study


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  • Kwasnicki, Witold
  • Kwasnicka, Halina


In the first part of this article, a short description of the most popular models of two competing technologies (the Fisher-Pry model and its modifications proposed by Blackman, Floyd, Sharif and Kabir) and the multi technological substitution models of Peterka and Marchetti-Nakiæenoviæ are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters’ identification using real data on technologies development. In the final sections the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion processes (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption and the raw steel production in the United States) are presented. The feasibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technologies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structure of the market is suggested.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22262.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Publication status: Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1.52(1996): pp. 31-57
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22262

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Keywords: diffusion; substitution; evolution; simulation; s-curve; logistic curve; logistic function;

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  1. Kwasnicki, Witold & Kwasnicka, Halina, 1992. "Market, innovation, competition: An evolutionary model of industrial dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 343-368, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Shinuo Deng & George R. Tynan, 2011. "Implications of Energy Return on Energy Invested on Future Total Energy Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(12), pages 2433-2442, December.
  2. Crompton, Paul, 2001. "The diffusion of new steelmaking technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 87-95, June.
  3. Nugroho, Yanuar, 2011. "Opening the black box: The adoption of innovations in the voluntary sector--The case of Indonesian civil society organisations," Research Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 761-777, June.
  4. J.S. Metcalfe, 2005. "Ed Mansfield and the Diffusion of Innovation: An Evolutionary Connection," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 171-181, 01.
  5. J.S Metcalfe, 2004. "Accounting for Evolution: An Assessment of the Population Method," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2004-21, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  6. Reinstaller, Andreas, 2005. "Policy entrepreneurship in the co-evolution of institutions, preferences, and technology: Comparing the diffusion of totally chlorine free pulp bleaching technologies in the US and Sweden," Research Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1366-1384, November.
  7. Kwasnicki, Witold, 2011. "China, India and the future of the global economy," MPRA Paper 32558, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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