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The Volatility of Thai Rice Price

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  • Baharom, A.H.
  • Radam, Alias
  • Habibullah, M.S.
  • Hirnissa, M.T

Abstract

This study was conducted to explore the varying volatility of world rice price for the period 1961 to 2008 using monthly data. The paper provides estimates of two GARCH models, namely, GARCH and EGARCH which were used to capture the stochastic variation and asymmetries in the world rice price. The results indicate that EGARCH model gives better estimate of the volatility of world rice price. Furthermore the EGARCH model was able to describe the asymmetric volatility in the world price of rice. It was further discovered that the positive shocks (good news) is more dominant than the negative shock (bad news).

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14113.

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Date of creation: 13 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14113

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Keywords: Keywords: Asymmetry; conditional heteroscedasticity; volatility; world rice price;

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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  3. Ho, Jun Seong & Lewis, James B. & Han-Rog, Kang, 2008. "Korean Expansion and Decline from the Seventeenth to the Nineteenth Century: A View Suggested by Adam Smith," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(01), pages 244-282, March.
  4. Zhuang, Renan & Abbott, Philip, 2007. "Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 155-169.
  5. Dana, Julie & Gilbert, Christopher L. & Shim, Euna, 2006. "Hedging grain price risk in the SADC: Case studies of Malawi and Zambia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 357-371, August.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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