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lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa: Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications

Author

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  • Robalino, David
  • Bogomolova, Tatyana

Abstract

This paper breaks down the contingent liability of a mandatory pension system into two components: the implicit pension debt and the pay-as-you-go asset. It then estimates these two components for 12 pension schemes across six MENA countries and presents international comparisons. The results show that implicit pension debts are large (in the order of 50% to 100% of GDP), often higher than the explicit public debt. At the same time, the large majority of pension schemes have negative pay-as-you-go assets. Under these circumstances, it is misleading to consider the implicit pension debt a contingency, as the government will have to finance it with almost certainty. In the absence of a default the fiscal impacts are expected to be large. The paper recommends including in the assessment of public debt sustainability the implicit liabilities of the mandatory pension system and the pay-as-you-go asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Robalino, David & Bogomolova, Tatyana, 2006. "lmplicit Pension Debt in the Middle-East and North Africa: Magnitude and Fiscal lmplications," MPRA Paper 12016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12016
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12016/1/MPRA_paper_12016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7427, December.
    3. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 153-187, April.
    2. Zou, Tieding, 2013. "公平与效率的两难抉择——关于养老改革影响因素的一个文献综述 [The Dilemma Between Efficiency and Equity——A Literature Review for the Affecting Factors of Pension Reforming]," MPRA Paper 49578, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Aug 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensions; implicit pension debt; fiscal policy; government bonds; contingent government liabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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