Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana
AbstractThis study examines the role of macroeconomic variables on stock prices movement in Ghana. We use the Databank stock index to represent Ghana stock market and (a) inward foreign direct investments, (b) the treasury bill rate (as a measure of interest rates), (c) the consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), and (d) the exchange rate as macroeconomic variables. We analyze both long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between the stock market index and the economic variable with quarterly data for the above variables from 1991.1 to 2006.4 using Johansen's multivariate cointegration test and innovation accounting techniques. We established that there is cointegration between macroeconomic variables identified and Stock prices in Ghana indicating long run relationship. Results of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) indicate that interest rate and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are the key determinants of the share price movements in Ghana.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11256.
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Cointegration; Innovation Accounting; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2008-10-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2008-10-28 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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