IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/111732.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Theory of the Credit-to-GDP Gap: Using Credit Gaps to Predict Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

The credit-to-GDP gap (credit gap) is thought to be a promising leading indicator of financial crises, but the trend of the credit-output ratio must be appropriately estimated before credit gaps can be used for this purpose. To appropriately estimate this ratio, it is necessary to know the mechanism by which it is generated, but this mechanism has not necessarily been sufficiently explained. In this paper, I examine the mechanisms underlying the creation of credit-output ratios and credit gaps, and show that the credit-output ratio has an exponentially increasing upward trend. A log-linear trend of the credit-output ratio therefore should be estimated when using the credit gap to predict financial crises. Estimates of log-linear trends of the credit-output ratio and credit gap of the U.S. indicate that the financial crises in 2008 and 1990 can be predicted if the credit gaps are well estimated and considered as an important leading indicator of financial crisis, even in “real time” (i.e., from the perspective of those years, not the present).

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "A Theory of the Credit-to-GDP Gap: Using Credit Gaps to Predict Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 111732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111732
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111732/1/MPRA_paper_111732.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/112820/1/MPRA_paper_111732.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    2. Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. repec:srs:journl:tpref:v:4:y:2013:i:2:p:151-182 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    5. repec:srs:journl:volume:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:73-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:srs:volume:v:4:y:2013:i:2:p:153-182 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    8. repec:srs:volume:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:73-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Bubbles and Bluffs: Risk Lovers Can Survive Economically," MPRA Paper 83615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Tyler Muir, 2017. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2015. "Bubbles Bluffs and Greed," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 21-49.
    14. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "A Theory of Inflation: The Law of Motion for Inflation under the MDC-based Procedure," MPRA Paper 113161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2013. "The Phillips Curve And A Micro-Foundation Of Trend Inflation," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 151-182.
    16. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2005.
    18. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2014. "Sustainable Heterogeneity In Exogenous Growth Models. The Socially Optimal Distribution By Government’S Intervention," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-100.
    19. Harashima, Taiji, 2014. "The Representative Household Assumption Requires sustainable Heterogeneity in Dynamic Models," MPRA Paper 57520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "Why should central banks be independent?," MPRA Paper 1838, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2007.
    21. repec:srs:journl:tpref:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:73-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Harashima, Taiji, 2010. "Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population," MPRA Paper 22521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    25. Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "The Optimal Quantity of Money Consistent with Positive Nominal Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 1839, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2007.
    26. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "Economic Inequality and Heterogeneous Success Rates of Investment," MPRA Paper 110688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2013. "The Phillips Curve And A Micro Foundation Of Trend Inflation," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 151-182.
    28. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "Consequence of Heterogeneous Economic Rents under the MDC-based Procedure," MPRA Paper 105765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Harashima, Taiji, 2009. "Depression as a Nash Equilibrium Consisting of Strategies of Choosing a Pareto Inefficient Transition Path," MPRA Paper 18953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Harashima, Taiji, 2012. "Sustainable Heterogeneity as the Unique Socially Optimal Allocation for Almost All Social Welfare Functions," MPRA Paper 40938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. repec:srs:journl:volume:v:4:y:2013:i:2:p:153-182 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    3. João F. Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica Wachter, 2018. "Foreseen Risks," NBER Working Papers 25277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gomes, João F. & Grotteria, Marco & Wachter, Jessica A., 2023. "Foreseen risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2016. "A Theory Of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced By A Central Bank?," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 98-145.
    6. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Qianying Chen & Claudio Raddatz & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Peichu Xie, 2019. "The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2019/207, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Bubbles and Bluffs: Risk Lovers Can Survive Economically," MPRA Paper 83615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.
    10. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "A Theory of Inflation: The Law of Motion for Inflation under the MDC-based Procedure," MPRA Paper 94100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Harashima, Taiji, 2022. "Numerical Simulations of Reaching a Steady State: No Need to Generate Any Rational Expectations," MPRA Paper 115335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat Author-X-Name_First: Piti, 2019. "Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 817, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2020. "How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 949-994, April.
    18. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Jang, Yeejin, 2021. "Who Lends Before Banking Crises? Evidence from the International Syndicated Loan Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 15737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    20. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "The Root Cause of Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 110010, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit gap; Credit-output ratio; Capital-output ratio; Financial crisis; Leading indicator; Demand for Money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.