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“Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis: The causal Relation between Trilemma and Macro Policy Performance

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  • Zhai, Weiyang

Abstract

This paper investigates how trilemma policy and economic performance mutually affected each other in developing and emerging countries between 1990 and 2017. We find that higher capital openness lowers output volatility and the inflation rate. However, trilemma policy decisions are also affected by economic performance. Under a high inflation regime, a country is pressured to reduce its financial integration by restricting its capital openness. During periods of heightened global risk and financial crisis, a country is pressured to reduce its exchange rate stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Weiyang, 2021. "“Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis: The causal Relation between Trilemma and Macro Policy Performance," MPRA Paper 110680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110680
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; financial liberalization; impossible trinity; trilemma policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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