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Econometric Modelling and Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: ARIMA Model Approach

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  • Ayodele Idowu, Mr

Abstract

This study examined econometric modelling and forecasting foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria over the next decade using Box-Jenkins ARIMA model approach. The scope of the study is from 1970 to 2020. The correlogram show that the net foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria is integrated of the first order. Based on the number of significant coefficients, highest adjusted R-squared, lowest volatility and the lowest SBIC and the AIC, the study estimated and presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model. The diagnostic test also shows that the estimated model is not only consistent but good for forecasting the net foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria and it also explains the dynamics around it. The result of the study shows that net foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria are likely for exhibit very slow upward trend between 2.80 billion USD and 3.26 billion USD in the next decade which is not significantly different from values of FDI inflows in Nigeria in the recent years. The study also provide policy recommendations so as to assist policy makers and the Nigerian government on better ways to accelerate and maintain higher level of net foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayodele Idowu, Mr, 2021. "Econometric Modelling and Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: ARIMA Model Approach," MPRA Paper 107466, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107466
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asiedu, Elizabeth, 2002. "On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-119, January.
    2. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2008. "Factors Determining FDI to Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 28097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    3. Ghebrihiwet, Nahom & Motchenkova, Evgenia, 2017. "Relationship between FDI, foreign ownership restrictions, and technology transfer in the resources sector: A derivation approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 320-326.
    4. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496, November.
    5. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; Foreign Direct Investment Inflows; Forecasting; Box-Jenkins; Nigeria.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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