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Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis

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  • Kolawole Olayiwola
  • Henry Okodua

Abstract

The study examines the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the performance of non-oil exports in Nigeria within the framework of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. Available evidence in Nigeria supports that the bulk of FDI inflow into the country goes to the oil sector of the economy. From the perspective of efficiency-seeking FDI, foreign capital always aims at taking advantage of cost-efficient production condition. Given this fact, a causality analysis was undertaken in order to verify the relevance of the ELG hypothesis. Also, the dynamic interaction among FDI, non-oil exports, and economic growth is investigated using the concept of variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The results obtained from the causality analysis revealed that a unidirectional causality runs from FDI to non-oil exports. Each of the three variables exhibited on the average and at the early stages of the out-of-sample forecast period, a dormant response to one standard deviation shock or innovation. However, they all demonstrated significant responses after some 7 years into the out-of-sample forecast period. The results also show that an encouragement of non-oil exports is a necessity for an effective FDI in Nigeria. Therefore, in designing policies towards this direction, policy response lag need to be taken into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496.
    • Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:v:3:y:2013:i:11:p:1479-1496:id:1103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wumi Olayiwola & Henry Okodua & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2014. "Finance For Growth and Policy Options for Emerging and Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 20-38, June.
    2. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Portfolio in Turkish Economy, and A Long Termed Relation Between Foreign Direct Investments and The Growth, and The Structural Breakage Analysis (1980-2012)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 70-81.
    3. A Alodadi & J Benhin, 2015. "Long Term Economic Growth in Oil-Rich Saudi Arabia: What is the role for non-oil sectors?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 109-130, March.
    4. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ayodele Idowu, Mr, 2021. "Econometric Modelling and Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: ARIMA Model Approach," MPRA Paper 107466, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Apr 2021.
    6. Ajayi, Temitope Abraham, 2020. "Did Diversification Impact Economic Growth in Nigeria in the Last 20 Years of Democratic Government (1999–2019)? A Vector Error Correction Model ," MPRA Paper 109271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    8. Peter Ego Ayunku, 2018. "The Nexus between Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Cointergration Approach," Noble International Journal of Social Sciences Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 3(8), pages 55-70, August.
    9. Omojolaibi, Joseph & Mesagan, Ekundayo & Olaifa, Adeyemi, 2015. "The Impact of Non-oil Export on Domestic Investment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 70201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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