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The Effect of Brexit on UK Productivity: Synthetic Control Analysis

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  • Farid, Moatazbellah

Abstract

In this paper I analyse the effect of Brexit on UK labour productivity and its components using a synthetic control methodology. My results show that the Brexit vote had a negative impact on labour productivity, causing GDP per hour worked to decrease by 2.4% by 2019 in comparison to the absence of Brexit. The two components of labour productivity are GDP and hours worked. I find that the decrease in the GDP is more than the increase in hours worked per person, causing the labour productivity to decline

Suggested Citation

  • Farid, Moatazbellah, 2020. "The Effect of Brexit on UK Productivity: Synthetic Control Analysis," MPRA Paper 103165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103165
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    3. Michael Gasiorek & Ilona Serwicka & Alasdair Smith, 2019. "Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 21-56, January.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    6. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrew Harvey & Stephen Thiele, 2021. "Cointegration and control: Assessing the impact of events using time series data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Labour productivity; Productivity puzzle; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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