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Estimating Pass-Through Rates for the 2022 Tax Reduction on Fuel Prices in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Jonas Dovern
  • Johannes Frank
  • Alexander Glas
  • Lena Müller
  • Daniel Perico Ortiz

Abstract

We analyze the effectiveness of the German tax reduction on fuel prices (‘Tankrabatt’) that was introduced for three months, starting on 1 June 2022. We use the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator to compare actual retail prices of gasoline and diesel to those in a counterfactual situation without the tax reduction. We find that the tax reduction has been completely passed on to consumers for most of the period. A notable exception is that pass-through rates for diesel started to decline in August while the tax reduction was still in place. Our results are robust to different approaches of constructing the synthetic control group.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Dovern & Johannes Frank & Alexander Glas & Lena Müller & Daniel Perico Ortiz, 2022. "Estimating Pass-Through Rates for the 2022 Tax Reduction on Fuel Prices in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9963, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9963
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    3. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    5. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Felix Montag & Alina Sagimuldina & Monika Schnitzer, 2021. "Does Tax Policy Work When Consumers Have Imperfect Price Information? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9138, CESifo.
    7. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    8. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alisa Frey & Justus Haucap, 2024. "VAT pass-through: the case of a large and permanent reduction in the market for menstrual hygiene products," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 160-202, February.
    2. Drolsbach, Chiara Patricia & Gail, Maximilian Maurice & Klotz, Phil-Adrian, 2023. "Pass-through of temporary fuel tax reductions: Evidence from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation [German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fuel; gasoline; diesel; taxes; synthetic control group;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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