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Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019

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  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick)

  • Wang, Shizhou

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

The United Kingdom (UK) reported record employment levels following its vote to Leave the European Union (EU), leading to many pundits discarding the dire pre-Brexit vote impact assessments as part of “project fear.” This paper studies the cost of the Brexit-vote to date across UK regions finding significant evidence suggesting that the economic costs of the Brexit-vote are both sizable and far from evenly distributed. Among 382 districts, at least 168 districts appear to be Brexit-vote losers, having lost, on average 8.54 percentage points of output in 2018 compared to their respective synthetic controls. The Brexit-vote costs are increasing in a districts : a) support for Leave in 2016 ; b) the size of its manufacturing sector; c) the share of low skilled. The Brexitvote induced economic divergence across regions is already exacerbating the regional economic inequalities that the 2016 EU referendum vote made apparent. Indirect evidence further suggests that firms may, amidst the significant (trade policy uncertainty, have shifted away from capital to labor in the short term given that Brexit has, to date, not led to changes in market access. The resulting short-term employment - and payroll growth post-2016 is not supported by productivity increases in most parts of the UK. This sets up the possibility for significant labor market adjustments once Brexit becomes a defacto reality. Further, there is some evidence suggesting that COVID19 may exacerbate the regional economic impact of the Brexit-vote to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Fetzer, Thiemo & Wang, Shizhou, 2020. "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1280, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1280
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    Cited by:

    1. Blackaby, David H. & Drinkwater, Stephen & Robinson, Catherine, 2020. "Regional Variations in the Brexit Vote: Causes and Potential Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 13579, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    3. Fingleton Bernard & Gardiner Ben & Martin Ron & Barbieri Luca, 2023. "The impact of brexit on regional productivity in the UK," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 67(2), pages 142-160, August.
    4. Thiemo Fetzer & Ivan Yotzov, 2023. "(How) Do Electoral Surprises Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from a New Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10584, CESifo.
    5. Gabriele Camera & Lukas Hohl & Rolf Weder, 2023. "Inequality as a barrier to economic integration? An experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 383-411, April.
    6. Kai Fischer, 2023. "Skilled Labour Migration and Firm Performance: Evidence from English Hospitals and Brexit," CESifo Working Paper Series 10747, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit ; economic impact ; evaluation ; trade barriers JEL codes: F6 ; H2 ; H3 ; H5 ; P16 ; D7;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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