IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling GDP for Sudan using ARIMA

Author

Listed:
  • Moahmed Hassan, Hisham
  • Haleeb, Amin

Abstract

This paper aims to obtain an appropriate ARIMA model for the Sudan GDP using the Box- Jenkins methodology during the period 1960-2018 the various ARIMA models with different order of autoregressive and moving-average terms were compared. The appropriate model for Sudan is an ARIMA (1,1,1), the results of an in-sample forecast showed that the relative and predicted values were within the range of 5%, and the forecasting effectiveness of this model, its relatively adequate and efficient in modeling the annual GDP of the Sudan.

Suggested Citation

  • Moahmed Hassan, Hisham & Haleeb, Amin, 2020. "Modelling GDP for Sudan using ARIMA," MPRA Paper 101207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101207/1/MPRA_paper_101207.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Univariate Stationary Processes," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, in: Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis, edition 2, chapter 2, pages 27-93, Springer.
    2. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, August.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    4. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    5. Ning, Wei & Kuan-jiang, Bian & Zhi-fa, Yuan, 2010. "Analysis and Forecast of Shaanxi GDP Based on the ARIMA Model," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 2(01), pages 1-4, January.
    6. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lallmahomed, Naguib & Taubert, Peter, 1989. "What can we learn from univariate time series models? The case of sugar production in Mauritius 1879-1987," MPRA Paper 40850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Feliz, Raul Anibal & Welch, John H., 1997. "Cointegration and tests of a classical model of inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 189-219, February.
    3. Mustofa Usman & Luvita Loves & Edwin Russel & Muslim Ansori & Warsono Warsono & Widiarti Widiarti & Wamiliana Wamiliana, 2022. "Analysis of Some Energy and Economics Variables by Using VECMX Model in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 91-102, March.
    4. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Lallmahomed, Naguib & Taubert, Peter, 1989. "What can we learn from univariate time series models? The case of sugar production in Mauritius 1879-1987," MPRA Paper 40900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.
    7. Raul Anibal Feliz & John H. Welch, 1992. "Cointegration and tests of a classical model of inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, And Peru," Working Papers 9210, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Radulović Marija & Kostić Milan, 2021. "Are EU Members’ Economies an “Engine” of the EU Candidates’ Economies?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(2), pages 97-117, December.
    9. Aurelie Charles & Damiano Sguotti, 2021. "Sustainable Earnings: How Can Herd Behavior in Financial Accumulation Feed into a Resilient Economic System?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Realized volatility spillovers between energy and metal markets: a time-varying connectedness approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    12. Elie Bouri & Georges Azzi, 2014. "On the Dynamic Transmission of Mean and Volatility across the Arab Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 13(3), pages 279-304, December.
    13. Eric Fur, 2023. "Risk and return of classic car market prices: passion or financial investment?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 59-68, February.
    14. Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan, 2009. "Does OPEC act as a Residual Producer?," MPRA Paper 25841, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    15. Georgiev, Iliyan, 2010. "Model-based asymptotic inference on the effect of infrequent large shocks on cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 37-50, September.
    16. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    17. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    18. Lenten, Liam J.A. & Geerling, Wayne & Kónya, László, 2012. "A hedonic model of player wage determination from the Indian Premier League auction: Further evidence," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 60-71.
    19. David Murrell & Weiqiu Yu, 2000. "The Effect of the Harmonized Sales Tax on Consumer Prices in Atlantic Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(4), pages 451-460, December.
    20. Nsisong Patrick Ekong & Daniel Wilson Ebong, 2016. "On the Crude Oil Price, Stock Market Movement and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria Evidence from Cointegration and Var Analysis," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 112-123, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA Modelling; Box-Jenkins methodology; forecasting; GDP; Sudan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.