Rationalizable Counterfactual Choice Probabilities in Dynamic Binary Choice Processes
AbstractWe address two issues in nonparametric structural analyses of dynamic binary choice processes (DBCP). First, the DBCP is not testable and decision makers’ single-period payoffs (SPP) cannot be identified even when the distribution of unobservable states (USV) is known. Numerical examples show setting SPP from one choice to arbitrary utility levels to identify that from the other can lead to errors in predicting choice probabilities under counterfactual state transitions. We propose two solutions. First, if a data generating process (DGP) has exogenous variations in observable state transitions, the DBCP becomes testable and SPP is identified. Second, exogenous economic restrictions on SPP (such as ranking of states by SPP, or shape restrictions) can be used to recover the identified set of rationalizable counterfactual choice probabilities (RCCP) that are consistent with model restrictions. The other (more challenging) motivating issue is that when the USV distribution is not known, misspecification of the distribution in structural estimation leads to errors in counterfactual predictions. We introduce a simple algorithm based on linear programming to recover sharp bounds on RCCP. This approach exploits the fact that some stochastic restrictions on USV (such as independence from observable states) and economic restrictions on SPP can be represented (without loss of information for counterfactual analyses) as linear restrictions on SPP and distributional parameters of USV. We use numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and show sizes of identified sets of RCCP can be quite small relative to the outcome space.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 09-022.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 20 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Dynamic discrete choice models; counterfactual outcomes; rationalizability; non-parametric and semiparametric identification;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2009-07-28 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ECM-2009-07-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-UPT-2009-07-28 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steve Berry, 2004.
"Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Examples),"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2036, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steve Berry, 2004. "Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Samples)," NBER Working Papers 10506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997.
"The Career Decisions of Young Men,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
- Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010.
"Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
- Pedro Mira & Victor Aguirregabiria, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers wp2007_0711, CEMFI.
- Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro mira, 2007. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey," Working Papers tecipa-297, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2005.
"Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1790, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007. "Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
- James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro, 2005. "Dynamic Discrete Choice and Dynamic Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
- Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
- Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2005.
"Nonparametric identification of behavioral responses to counterfactual policy interventions in dynamic discrete decision processes,"
Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 393-398, June.
- Victor Aguirregabiria, 2004. "Nonparametric Identification of Behavioral Responses to Counterfactual Policy Interventions in Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrics 0408004, EconWPA.
- Victor Aguirregabiria, 2005. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrics 0504006, EconWPA.
- Arcidiacono, Peter & Jones, John B., 2000.
"Finite Mixture Distribution, Sequential Likelihood, and the EM Algorithm,"
00-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Peter Arcidiacono & John Bailey Jones, 2003. "Finite Mixture Distributions, Sequential Likelihood and the EM Algorithm," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 933-946, 05.
- Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
- Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dolly Guarini).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.