Everything is Uncertain and Uncertainty is Everything: Strategic Voting in Simple Plurality Elections

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Everything is Uncertain and Uncertainty is Everything: Strategic Voting in Simple Plurality Elections

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David P. Myatt
Stephen D. Fisher

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David Peter Myatt

Abstract

Intuition tells us that strategic voting is most likely in marginal constituencies where the preferred party is a long way behind the second placed parity. Some formal theories suggest there should be complete desertion of all but two candidates (Palfrey 1989), or additionally that the second and third will have similar vote shares (Cox 1997). Unfortunately, these theories fail to account for uncertainty over the strength of candidates. We present a model that allows for such uncertainty. It generates interesting and original comparative statics. All three approaches are tested against English voting data from 1987, 1992 and 1997. Our model fits the data; the standard intuition and Cox hypothesis do not. Thus formal theory can improve on intuition. But, this depends on the realization that voters are uncertain, and it is only uncertainty that matters for strategic voting.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 115.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:115

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References listed on IDEAS
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Roger B. Myerson & Robert J. Weber, 1988. "A Theory of Voting Equilibria," Discussion Papers 782, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Aki Lehtinen, 2007. "The Borda rule is also intended for dishonest men," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 73-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
David P. Myatt & Stephen D. Fisher, 2002. "Tactical Coordination in Plurality Electoral Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 133, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- David P. Myatt & Stephen D. Fisher, 2002. "Tactical Coordination in Plurality Electoral Systems," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 504-522.

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.

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