IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/hdpga.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Anand, Vaibhav

Abstract

Advances in predictive technologies are improving forecasts of risk, but do better forecasts result in better risk management? Using data on winter forecasts and vehicle crashes from 11 states in the US, I investigate the value of improvements in forecast lead times. I show that winter advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes significantly, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. These benefits come from both the individual and institutional response to advisory lead times. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews increase the intensity of road maintenance operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Anand, Vaibhav, 2001. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," SocArXiv hdpga, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hdpga
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hdpga
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/63b852b9202f170ad2a6b2d9/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/hdpga?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justin Gallagher & Paul J. Fisher, 2020. "Criminal Deterrence When There Are Offsetting Risks: Traffic Cameras, Vehicular Accidents, and Public Safety," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 202-237, August.
    2. Austin C. Smith, 2016. "Spring Forward at Your Own Risk: Daylight Saving Time and Fatal Vehicle Crashes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 65-91, April.
    3. Matthew Neidell, 2009. "Information, Avoidance Behavior, and Health: The Effect of Ozone on Asthma Hospitalizations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    4. Lu Li & Richard Peter, 2021. "Should we do more when we know less? The effect of technology risk on optimal effort," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 695-725, September.
    5. Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen, 2014. "Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Police Enforcement and Traffic Fatalities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 231-257, May.
    6. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher R. Udry, 2019. "Assessing the Benefits of Long-Run Weather Forecasting for the Rural Poor: Farmer Investments and Worker Migration in a Dynamic Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 25894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams, 2013. "Texting Bans and Fatal Accidents on Roadways: Do They Work? Or Do Drivers Just React to Announcements of Bans?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 179-199, April.
    8. Janet Currie & Matthew Neidell, 2005. "Air Pollution and Infant Health: What Can We Learn from California's Recent Experience?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 1003-1030.
    9. J. Bradley Karl & Charles Nyce, 2020. "The Effect of Distracted Driving Laws on Automobile Liability Insurance Claims," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 593-610, October.
    10. Ferris, Jeffrey S. & Newburn, David A., 2017. "Wireless alerts for extreme weather and the impact on hazard mitigating behavior," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 239-255.
    11. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    12. Cherry, Todd L. & James, Alexander G. & Murphy, James, 2021. "The impact of public health messaging and personal experience on the acceptance of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 415-430.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anand, Vaibhav, 2022. "The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes," MPRA Paper 114491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lusher, Lester & Ruberg, Tim, 2023. "Killer Alerts? Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke in Japan," IZA Discussion Papers 16562, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Huang, Jialin & Xing, Jianwei & Yongchen Zou, Eric, 2023. "(Re)scheduling pollution exposure: The case of surgery schedules," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Fry, Jane M., 2023. "Do increased speeding fines save lives?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2017. "Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2958-2989, October.
    6. Rinaldo Brau & Marco Nieddu & S. Balia, 2021. "Depowering Risk: Vehicle Power Restriction and Teen Driver Accidents in Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 202101, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    7. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2012. "The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3652-3673, December.
    8. Solomon Hsiang & Paulina Oliva & Reed Walker, 2019. "The Distribution of Environmental Damages," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    9. Duncan, Kevin Davey, 2020. "Three papers in regional dynamics and panel econometrics," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009129, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Hill, Elaine L. & Ma, Lala, 2022. "Drinking water, fracking, and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Luechinger, Simon, 2014. "Air pollution and infant mortality: A natural experiment from power plant desulfurization," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 219-231.
    12. Alison L. Sexton Ward & Timothy K. M. Beatty, 2016. "Who Responds to Air Quality Alerts?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(2), pages 487-511, October.
    13. Nicholas J. Sanders, 2012. "What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Weaker: Prenatal Pollution Exposure and Educational Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(3), pages 826-850.
    14. Avraham Ebenstein & Maoyong Fan & Michael Greenstone & Guojun He & Peng Yin & Maigeng Zhou, 2015. "Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 226-231, May.
    15. Cheng Keat Tang, 2017. "Do Speed Cameras Save Lives?," SERC Discussion Papers 0221, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2013. "Environment, Health, and Human Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 689-730, September.
    17. Chen, Siyu & Guo, Chongshan & Huang, Xinfei, 2018. "Air Pollution, Student Health, and School Absences: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 465-497.
    18. Nathaly M Rivera & Cristobal Ruiz Tagle, Elisheba Spiller, 2021. "The Health Benefits of Solar Power Generation: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_04, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    19. Wes Austin & Stefano Carattini & John Gomez Mahecha & Michael Pesko, 2020. "Covid-19 Mortality and Contemporaneous Air Pollution," CESifo Working Paper Series 8609, CESifo.
    20. Margaryan, Shushanik, 2021. "Low emission zones and population health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hdpga. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.