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Do explosions shape voting behavior?

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  • Vargas, Juan F.
  • Purroy, Miguel E.
  • Coy, Felipe
  • Perilla, Sergio
  • Prem, Mounu

Abstract

Violence in conflict settings is seldom random, making its effects indistinguishable from the intentions of the perpetrator. We leverage on the quasi-randomness of accidental landmine explosions to study how violence shapes electoral outcomes in Colombia. We combine the geolocation of landmine blasts with the coordinates of voting polls in a regression discontinuity design that compares polls close to which a landmine exploded just before the election to those close to which it did just afterward. Blasts within a month from election day depress turnout by 23%. In addition, those who do vote penalize the democratic left for the explosions and are more likely to support political parties with ties with illegal paramilitary groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Vargas, Juan F. & Purroy, Miguel E. & Coy, Felipe & Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu, 2022. "Do explosions shape voting behavior?," SocArXiv dw9vn, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:dw9vn
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dw9vn
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