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Confidence Bands for ROC Curves with Serially Dependent Data

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  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Liu Yang

Abstract

We propose serial correlation robust asymptotic confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves estimated by quasi-maximum likelihood in the binormal model. Our simulation experiments confirm that this new method performs fairly well in finite samples. The conventional procedure is found to be markedly undersized in terms of yielding empirical coverage probabilities lower than the nominal level, especially when the serial correlation is strong. We evaluate the three-quarter-ahead probability forecasts for real GDP declines from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and find that one would draw a misleading conclusion about forecasting skill if serial correlation is ignored.

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File URL: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/2013/ly_roc.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-07.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:13-07

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml

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