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The mystery of TFP

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  • Nicholas Oulton

Abstract

I analyse TFP growth at the sectoral and aggregate level, using data for 10 industry groups covering the market sector for 18 countries over the period 1970-2007 drawn from the EU KLEMS dataset. TFP growth displays persistence at the aggregate level but not at the industry level, suggesting industry outputs are measured with error. In all countries resources have been shifting away from industries with high TFP growth towards industries with low TFP growth. Nevertheless I find that structural change (as measured by changes in value added shares) has favoured growth in most countries. Errors in measuring capital or in measuring the elasticity of output with respect to capital are unlikely to substantially reduce the role of TFP in explaining growth. The pattern of growth in these 18 countries is more consistent with an underlying two-sector model than with the one-sector (Solow) model. Standard theory suggests that TFP growth induces capital accumulation, at least in the long run. This is not the case with the raw EU KLEMS data used here. But standard theory finds some support when the data are smoothed to remove cyclical effects.

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  • Nicholas Oulton, 2017. "The mystery of TFP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2017-02, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2017-02
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    Cited by:

    1. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Elchin Suleymanov & Heyran Aliyeva & Hezi Eynalov & Sa'd Shannak, 2022. "What Drives the Agricultural Growth in Azerbaijan? Insights from Autometrics with Super Saturation," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 147-174.
    3. Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Stefano Schiavo & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2019. "How to revive productivity growth?," EconPol Policy Reports 13, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Oulton, Nicholas & Rincon-Aznar, Ana & Samek, Lea & Srinivasan, Sylaja, 2018. "Double deflation: theory and practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100927, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Francisco Pérez & Eva Benages, 2017. "The Role of Capital Accumulation in the Evolution of Total Factor Productivity in Spain," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 33, pages 24-50, Fall.
    6. Alexander Murray, 2016. "Partial versus Total Factor Productivity: Assessing Resource Use in Natural Resource Industries in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2016-20, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    7. Thomas Grjebine & Jérôme Hericourt & Fabien Tripier, 2019. "Sectoral Reallocations, Real Estate Shocks and Productivity Divergence in Europe: A Tale of Three Countries," Post-Print hal-02501079, HAL.
    8. Hartwig, Jochen & Krämer, Hagen, 2019. "The ‘Growth Disease’ at 50 – Baumol after Oulton," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 463-471.
    9. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    10. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 020, The Productivity Institute.
    11. -, 2018. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018. Evolution of investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts, determinants and policy challenges," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 43965 edited by Eclac, September.
    12. Schubert, Torben & Jäger, Angela & Türkeli, Serdar & Visentin, Fabiana, 2020. "Addressing the productivity paradox with big data: A literature review and adaptation of the CDM econometric model," MERIT Working Papers 2020-050, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Gruhle, Tobias & Harms, Philipp, 2022. "Producer Services and the Current Account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Nicholas Oulton, 2016. "The Mystery of TFP," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 68-87, Fall.
    15. Roberto Camagni & Roberta Capello & Camilla Lenzi & Giovanni Perucca, 2023. "Urban crisis vs. urban success in the era of 4.0 technologies: Baumol's model revisited," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 589-612, June.
    16. Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "How to Boost Productivity in the EU," EconPol Policy Brief 8, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. André A. Hofman & Patricio Valderrama, 2021. "Long Run Economic Growth Performance In Latin America – 1820–2016," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 833-869, July.
    18. Philip Flegler & Hagen Krämer, 2021. "The Productivity Paradox of Business-Related Services," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 38-45, March.
    19. Klaus Weyerstrass, 2018. "How to Boost Productivity in the EU," EconPol Policy Brief 08, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Bill Martin & Centre for Business Research, 2018. "A Comment on Oulton, "The UK Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?"," Working Papers wp498, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Total factor productivity; TFP; structural change; measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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