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The Resource Curse and Fiscal Policy Volatility

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  • Michael Bleaney
  • Håvard Halland
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    Abstract

    Using data from 1980 to 2004, we show that greater fiscal policy volatility acts as a transmission mechanism for the ‘resource curse’. Resource exports dominate political and institutional variables as determinants of fiscal policy volatility, with fiscal policy volatility being a significant determinant of growth. The existence of a resource curse is confirmed, in the sense that a higher ratio of natural resource exports to total merchandise exports is associated with significantly slower per capita GDP growth. There are no statistically significant differences between the effects of point-source and diffuse resource exports.

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    File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/credit/documents/papers/09-09.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Nottingham, CREDIT in its series Discussion Papers with number 09/09.

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    Handle: RePEc:not:notcre:09/09

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    Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
    Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
    Fax: (0115) 951 4159
    Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/
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    Keywords: Fiscal policy; growth; resource curse.;

    References

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    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 335-76, October.
    4. Francesco Caselli & Tom Cunningham, 2009. "Leader Behavior and the Natural Resource Curse," CEP Discussion Papers dp0913, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Brunnschweiler, Christa N., 2008. "Cursing the Blessings? Natural Resource Abundance, Institutions, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-419, March.
    6. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2008. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," OxCarre Working Papers 003, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Simon Guttmann & Anthony Richards, 2004. "Trade Openness: An Australian Perspective," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    10. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
    11. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. " Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
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