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Portugal before and after the European Union: Facts on Nontradables

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  • Fernando Alexandre

    ()
    (University of Minho - NIPE)

  • Pedro Bação

    ()
    (University of Coimbra - GEMF)

Abstract

The rise of nontradable sectors has been mentioned as one of the causes of low economic growth and external imbalances in the Portuguese economy. In this paper we describe the main trends and jumps in the evolution of nontradable sectors, since the mid-1950s, using four different databases to shed light on different dimensions of this issue. We show that, despite the pattern of the growth of the share of services being similar to that observed in other developed countries, since the early 1990s it has been significantly larger than in most countries. We find that the shift to nontradables in Portugal has been fast and that it occurred essentially at the expense of agriculture in the period 1953-95, and essentially at the expense of industry in the period 1995-2009. In 2009, the share of nontradables in total GVA reached 61%, if we exclude open service sectors, and 74.4%, if we treat all service sectors as nontradable. We also find that more than half of the change towards nontradables since joining the European Union took place in the period 1988-1993. Finally, we show that construction and services facing a strong Government demand were the main drivers of the increasing weight of nontradables in the Portuguese economy since 1986.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 15/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:15/2012

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  1. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Camarero, Mariam, 2008. "The real exchange rate of the dollar for a panel of OECD countries: Balassa-Samuelson or distribution sector effect?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 620-632, December.
  3. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2009. "Portuguese International Trade in Services," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages F374-F403, 06.
  5. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2009. "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 478-486, 04-05.
  6. Ejaz Ghani & Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Service Revolution," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10187, The World Bank.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2009. "The Two Waves of Service-Sector Growth," Development Economics Working Papers 22914, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  9. João Amador & Ana Cristina Soares, 2012. "Competition in the Portuguese Economy: a view on tradables and non-tradables," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
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