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Inefficiency of Corporate Investment and Distortion of Savings Behavior in Japan

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Author Info
Albert Ando
Dimitrios Christelis
Tsutomu Miyagawa

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Abstract

The value of corporate equity in Japan is dramatically smaller than that implied by the sum of the reproduction cost of accumulated investment and the market value of land owned by corporations (that is, the Tobin's average 'q' is much smaller than unity). This discrepancy appears to result from the very low rate of return earned on corporate investment and also from the extraordinarily small and stagnant dividend payments. It has persisted at least since l965, and its size has become progressively larger over time. If the value of corporate equity were sufficiently high to close the discrepancy, the net worth of the household sector would have been larger than its actual value by some 395 trillion yen in l998. Such an addition to household net worth would have generated additional consumption demand of at least 15 trillion yen. This paper traces the development of this valuation discrepancy over time, and explores its possible causes. In the process, we prepare an alternative estimate of the capital stock and its depreciation to those offered in the National Accounts. The basic difference is that the depreciation rates underlying our calculations are substantially lower than those used in the Japanese National Accounts, and closer to values prevailing in the United States. The qualitative characteristics of our results, however, remain unaffected by the choice between these alternative estimates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9444.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9444

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Dekle, Robert, 1994. "Market value estimates of Japanese saving and comparisons with the U.S.: can the capital gains to land be included in 'saving?'," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 27-44. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 1990. "Evidence on q and investment for Japanese firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 136, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. Hayashi, Fumio & Inoue, Tohru, 1991. "The Relation between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 731-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ogawa, Kazuo & Kitasaka, Shin-ichi & Yamaoka, Hiroshi & Iwata, Yasuharu, 1996. "An empirical re-evaluation of wealth effect in Japanese household behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 423-442, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ando, Albert, 2002. "Missing Household Saving and Valuation of Corporations: Inquiry into Japanese National Accounts I," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 147-176, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Asset Price Fluctuations in Japan: 1980-2000," Working Papers 2003-25, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Keisuke Otsu, 2007. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Postwar Japanese Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Land Prices and Business Fixed Investments in Japan," NBER Working Papers 10909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "An International Perspective of Japan's Corporate Groups and their Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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